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ARMS IMPORTS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: PREDICTING CONFLICT INVOLVEMENT

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Abstract:

This paper explores relationships between the arms trade and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa from 1967 to 1997. We present a bivariate logistic regression model to explain the variance in domestic and international conflict incidence in the region. Our models indicate that the relationship between weapons transfers and war is stronger in sub-Saharan Africa than the literature on the region indicates, and should be included as an integral element in more comprehensive models of conflict. The findings have clear implications for further research and arms transfer policy toward regions of conflict.

Keywords: Armed conflict; Arms trade; Civil war; Interstate war; Political violence; Weapons trade

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10242690302933

Affiliations: 1: Department of Government and Public Service, University of Alabama at Birmingham, 238 Ullman, 1212 University Blvd., Birmingham, AL 35294 2: Liberal Studies Program, Georgetown University

Publication date: January 1, 2002

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