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Strategic foresight: matching environmental uncertainty

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Abstract:

This paper explores how strategic decision-makers select and use foresight practices and techniques for handling environmental uncertainty. Our research is based on a multiple-case study of corporate organisations that recently faced major changes in their external environment and increasing turbulence. We expand our understanding of environmental uncertainty by defining the concept of ‘boundary uncertainty’, which regards the identity of the components of the business (micro) environment. We distinguish between ‘continuous’ and ‘discontinuous’ drivers of change and find that they entail different requirements for the design and implementation of strategic foresight actions.

Keywords: environmental uncertainty; learning; planning; strategic foresight; strategic management

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715487

Affiliations: Department of Management,Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy

Publication date: 2012-09-01

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