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Foresight in an unpredictable world

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Abstract:

Unpredictability has two main sources: epistemic uncertainty and ontological unpredictability. When disruptive and downstream innovations become frequent, ontological unpredictability becomes increasingly important for innovation policy and strategy. The analysis of the nature of ontological unpredictability explains why future-oriented technology analysis and foresight frequently fail to grasp socially and economically important technical developments and clarifies why policy, strategy, and future-oriented analysis need to move beyond evidence-based approaches.

Keywords: anticipatory systems; creative evolution; innovation; ontological expansion; unpredictability

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715476

Affiliations: Meaning Processing Ltd., Merenneidontie 24 D02320,Espoo, Finland

Publication date: 2012-09-01

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