Authors: Ballard, Kenneth¹; Clark, Gordon²

Source: Regional Studies: The Journal of the Regional Studies Association, Volume 15, Number 3, June 1981 , pp. 213-228(16)

Publisher: Routledge, part of the Taylor & Francis Group

Abstract:

Ballard K. P. and Clark G. L. (1981) The short-run dynamics of inter-state migration: a space-time economic adjustment model of in-migration to fast growing States, Reg. Studies 15, 213-228. Interregional migration is analyzed with respect to its short-run responsiveness to economic fluctuations and its efficiency as a spatial labour market allocation mechanism. Using a space-time analytical framework, in-migration to four fast growing States of the United States is analyzed over the period 1958-1975. It is shown via a time-series model, employing a Koyck-distributed lag methodology, that short-run in-migration is in fact responsive to economic fluctuations. Both employment and turnover variables figure prominently in this regard. By a cross-sectional analysis it is also shown that in-migrants to fast growing States do not necessarily come from depressed or low-growth regions. Thus, interregional migration may not be an efficient allocator of labour across the aggregate spatial system in the short or long run.

Keywords: Space-time dynamics; Short-run migration; Turnover; Economic adjustment; Origins; Destinations

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09595238100185221

Affiliations: 1: Regional Economic Analysis Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington, DC, 20230, U.S.A. 2: John F. Kennedy School of Government, Gund Hall, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, U.S.A.

Publication date: 1981-06-01

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