IngentaConnect Changing perception of average person's risk does not suffice to ...

Authors: Aucote, Helen¹; Gold, Ron²

Source: Psychology, Health and Medicine, Volume 13, Number 4, August 2008 , pp. 461-470(10)

Publisher: Routledge, part of the Taylor & Francis Group

Abstract:

The direct method of assessing “unrealistic optimism” employs a question of the form, “Compared with the average person, what is the chance that event X will occur to you?” It has been proposed that when individuals construct their responses to this question (direct-estimates) they focus much more strongly on estimates of their own risk (self-estimates) than on estimates of the average person's risk (other-estimates). A challenge to this proposal comes from findings that interventions that alter other-estimates also change direct-estimates. Employing a novel intervention technique, we tested the possibility that such interventions may indirectly also change self-estimates and that this is what accounts for their effect on direct-estimates. Study 1 (n = 58) showed that an intervention which was designed to (and did) affect other-estimates also affected self-estimates, while Study 2 (n = 101) showed that it affected direct-estimates. Study 3 (n = 79) confirmed that we could modify the intervention so as to maintain the effect on other-estimates, but eliminate that on self-estimates. Study 4 (n = 112) demonstrated that when this was done, there was no longer any effect on direct-estimates. The findings are consistent with the proposal that direct-estimates are constructed largely just out of self-estimates. Implications for heath education programs are discussed.

Keywords: unrealistic optimism; direct-estimates; self-estimates; other-estimates

Document Type: Research article

DOI: 10.1080/13548500701694227

Affiliations: 1: Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia,University of Ballarat, Ballarat, Victoria, Australia 2: Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia

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Changing perception of average person's risk does not suffice to change perception of comparative risk