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Oil Price Shocks and the Asymmetric Adjustment of UK Output: a Markov-switching approach

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This paper examines the role played by real oil price shocks in influencing the growth in UK GDP. Our particular interest is the possibility that asymmetries might exist in such a relationship. Using Hamilton's regime-switching estimation, we consider whether oil price shocks influence both the deepness and duration of the business cycle. We find that asymmetries arise insofar as oil price appreciation is most likely to curtail the duration of the expansionary phase of the business cycle. This result is in contrast to existing studies of the oil price-macroeconomy relationship that have largely concerned the US.

Document Type: Research Article


Affiliations: 1: Department of Economics, Loughborough University, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, UK. Email: 2: Middlesex University Business School, The Burroughs, London NW4 4BT, UK. Email,

Publication date: January 1, 2003

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