Predicting the Future: the role of past performance in determining trends in institutional effectiveness at A level
The analysis demonstrates that the average A/AS level results secured by English institutions from year to year are very stable. When account is taken of intake characteristics, however, correlations decrease substantially. The results show that predicting future 'value added' performance from past trends is unreliable. The implications of these findings for notions of 'continuous improvement' are discussed as well as their consequences for further research on institutional improvement.