The Diffusion of Democracy, 1946–1994
We examine the relationship between the temporal and spatial aspects of democratic diffusion in the world system since 1946. We find strong and consistent evidence of temporal clustering of democratic and autocratic trends, as well as strong spatial association (or autocorrelation) of democratization. The analysis uses an exploratory data approach in a longitudinal framework to understand global and regional trends in changes in authority structures. Our work reveals discrete changes in regimes that run counter to the dominant aggregate trends of democratic waves or sequences, demonstrating how the ebb and flow of democracy varies among the world's regions. We conclude that further analysis of the process of regime change from autocracy to democracy, as well as reversals, should start from a “domain-specific” position that dis-aggregates the globe into its regional mosaics.
Keywords: Africa; Democracy; Latin America; measures of democracy; political change; regional effects; space-time autocorrelation; spatial diffusion
Document Type: Research Article
Affiliations: 1: University of Colorado, Boulder, 2: University of Washington, 3: Science Applications International Corporation(SAIC), 4: American University, 5: Rice University, 6: University of Miami
Publication date: 01 December 1998
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