Reconstructing the space-time structure of the HIV/AIDS epidemic for the countries of Western Europe

Author: Thomas R.

Source: Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, Volume 25, Number 4, December 2000 , pp. 445-463(19)

Publisher: Royal Geographical Society

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Abstract:

This paper applies a compartmental epidemic modelling system to the estimation of HIV infection transfers between the nations of Western Europe for the period 1973–98. This multiregional model imitates the formation of disease contacts by both local and international travel, where the latter is assumed to have the lower sensitivity to the effects of spatial separation. This system is calibrated in two stages: first, disease parameter sets are found to best fit the timing of recorded AIDS incidence in each nation; and second, these sets are entered into a multiregion setting to identify the travel parameters that support the lags between these series. The outputs include estimates for the first year of HIV incidence in each country and the subsequent pathways of infection transfer that connect these dates. The results indicate the contrasting roles of the southern and northern countries within the continental epidemic and point to national variations in the recent delaying effects on AIDS incidence of drug combination therapies.

Keywords: Western Europe; HIV/AIDS; multiregion models; origins; diffusion control

Language: English

Document Type: Research article

Affiliations: 1: School of Geography, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL email: mfvstrwt@fs1.go.man.ac.uk

Publication date: 2000-12-01

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