Skip to main content

Using a Markov process model of an association football match to determine the optimal timing of substitution and tactical decisions

The full text article is temporarily unavailable.

We apologise for the inconvenience. Please try again later.

A football match is modelled as a four-state Markov process. A log-linear model, fed by real data, is used to estimate transition probabilities by means of the maximum likelihood method. This makes it possible to estimate the probability distributions of goals scored and the expected number of league points gained, from any position in a match, for any given set of transition probabilities and hence in principle for any match. This approach is developed in order to estimate the optimal time to change tactics using dynamic programming, either by making a substitution or by some other conscious change of plan. A simple example of this approach is included as an illustration.

Journal of the Operational Research Society (2002) 53, 88–96. DOI: 10.1057/palgrave/jors/2601254
No References
No Citations
No Supplementary Data
No Article Media
No Metrics

Keywords: Markov process; decision; football; soccer; sports; tactics

Document Type: Miscellaneous

Affiliations: Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK

Publication date: 01 January 2002

  • Access Key
  • Free content
  • Partial Free content
  • New content
  • Open access content
  • Partial Open access content
  • Subscribed content
  • Partial Subscribed content
  • Free trial content
Cookie Policy
X
Cookie Policy
Ingenta Connect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more