Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets

Authors: Allen, Franklin; Morris, Stephen; Shin, Hyun Song

Source: Review of Financial Studies, Volume 19, Number 3, 1 2006 , pp. 719-752(34)

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Abstract:

In a financial market where traders are risk averse and short lived and prices are noisy, asset prices today depend on the average expectation today of tomorrow's price. Thus (iterating this relationship) the date 1 price equals the date 1 average expectation of the date 2 average expectation of the date 3 price. This will not, in general, equal the date 1 average expectation of the date 3 price. We show how this failure of the law of iterated expectations for average belief can help understand the role of higher-order beliefs in a fully rational asset pricing model.

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhj036

Publication date: 2006-01-01

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The Review of Financial Studies is a major forum for the promotion and wide dissemination of significant new research in financial economics. As reflected by its broadly based editorial board, the Review balances theoretical and empirical contributions. The primary criteria for publishing a paper are its quality and importance to the field of finance, without undue regard to its technical difficulty. Finance is interpreted broadly to include the interface between finance and economics. The Review is sponsored by The Society for Financial Studies. The editors of the Review and officers of the Society are elected for limited terms.