Probability Theory and Causation: A Branching Space-Times Analysis
Author: Müller, Thomas
Source: British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, Volume 56, Number 3, September 2005 , pp. 487-520(34)
Publisher: Oxford University Press
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Abstract:
We provide a formally rigorous framework for integrating singular causation, as understood by Nuel Belnap's theory of causae causantes, and objective single case probabilities. The central notion is that of a causal probability space whose sample space consists of causal alternatives. Such a probability space is generally not isomorphic to a product space. We give a causally motivated statement of the Markov condition and an analysis of the concept of screening-off. <LIST> <ITEM> Causal dependencies and probabilities <ITEM> 1.1 Background: causation in branching space-times </ITEM> <ITEM> 1.2 What are probabilities defined for? </ITEM></LIST></ITEM> <ITEM> Basic transitions <ITEM> 2.1 Basics of basic transitions </ITEM> <ITEM> 2.2 Sets of basic transitions </ITEM></LIST></ITEM> <ITEM> Causal probability theory <ITEM> 3.1 Some simple cases </ITEM> <ITEM> 3.2 General causal probabilities </ITEM> <ITEM> 3.3 Application: probability of suprema of a chain </ITEM></LIST></ITEM></LIST>Document Type: Research article
DOI: 10.1093/bjps/axi132
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