The preface, the lottery, and the logic of belief

Authors: Bovens L.; Hawthorne J.

Source: Mind, Volume 108, Number 430, April 1999 , pp. 241-264(24)

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Abstract:

John Locke proposed a straightforward relationship between qualitative and quantitative doxastic notions: belief corresponds to a sufficiently high degree of confidence. Richard Foley has further developed this Lockean thesis and applied it to an analysis of the preface and lottery paradoxes. Following Foley's lead, we exploit various versions of these paradoxes to chart a precise relationship between belief and probabilistic degrees of confidence. The resolutions of these paradoxes emphasize distinct but complementary features of coherent belief. These features suggest principles that tie together qualitative and quantitative doxastic notions. We show how these principles may be employed to construct a quantitative model - in terms of degrees of confidence - of an agent's qualitative doxastic state. This analysis fleshes out the Lockean thesis and provides the foundation for a logic of belief that is responsive to the logic of degrees of confidence.

Language: English

Document Type: Original article

Affiliations: Department of Philosophy, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA bovens@spot.colorado.edu : 1: Department of Philosophy, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0232, USA

Publication date: 1999-04-01

• Mind has long been a leading journal in philosophy. For well over 100 years it has presented the best of cutting edge thought from epistemology, metaphysics, philosophy of language, philosophy of logic, and philosophy of mind. Mind continues its tradition of excellence today. Mind has always enjoyed a strong reputation for the high standards established by its editors and receives around 350 submissions each year. The editor seeks advice from a large number of expert referees, including members of the network of Associate Editors and his international advisers. Mind is published quarterly.

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