Paired human chorionic gonadotrophin determinations for the prediction of pregnancy outcome in assisted reproduction
Authors: Chen, Chin-Der; Ho, Hong-Nerng; Wu, Ming-Yih; Chao, Kuang-Han; Chen, Shee-Uan; Yang, Yu-Shih
Source: Human Reproduction, Volume 12, Number 11, November 1997 , pp. 2538-2541(4)
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Abstract:The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of single and paired measurements of serum concentrations of human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG) for successful pregnancy following in-vitro fertilization (IVF) and tubal embryo transfer (TET). We analysed serum HCG concentrations 15 and 22 days after IVF or TET in 198 conception cycles. Cut-off values of serum HCG were determined by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. On the basis of single HCG samples on day 15 (HCG15) after transfer, using a cut-off value of HCG15 = 150 mIU/ml, the sensitivity was 71% and the specificity was 77%. The positive predictive value (HCG15 ≥ 150 mIU/ml indicating a normal pregnancy) was 89%, while the negative predictive rate (HCG15 < 150 mIU/ml indicating an abnormal pregnancy) was 51%. Patients with HCG15 < 150 mIU/ml but HCG22/HCG15 ratio ≥ 15, still had a 90% chance of normal pregnancy. However, in patients with HCG15 < 150 mIU/ml and an HCG22/HCG15 ratio <15, there was an 84% chance of an abnormal pregnancy. We conclude that a single HCG15 determination combined with the ratio of HCG22 to HCG15 has a higher diagnostic accuracy for prediction of pregnancy outcome than either analysis alone.
Document Type: Research article
Publication date: 1997-11-01
- Human Reproduction features full-length, peer-reviewed papers reporting original research, clinical case histories, as well as opinions and debates on topical issues. Papers published cover the scientific and medical aspects of reproductive physiology and pathology, endocrinology, andrology, gonad function, gametogenesis, fertilization, embryo development, implantation, pregnancy, genetics, genetic diagnosis, oncology, infectious disease, surgery, contraception, infertility treatment, psychology, ethics and social issues. The highest scientific and editorial standard is maintained throughout the journal along with a rapid rate of publication.