Recent Flows, Demographic Developments and Migration

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Abstract:

The period 2005‐2015 is a transition period in OECD countries with respect to the demographic impact of the baby‐boom on the working‐age population and the labour force. Persons born after 1945 have been entering their sixties and will be retiring over the period, if they have not already done so before the age of sixty. These baby‐boom cohorts are significantly larger than those that came before. While the incoming (20‐24) working‐age cohorts in OECD countries were some 32% larger on average1 than the outgoing retiring (60‐64) ones in 2005, the situation in 2015 will be substantially different, with the incoming labour force cohorts being scarcely 2% larger (see Figure I.1). By 2020 they will be some 9% smaller. For almost half of OECD countries, the outgoing cohorts will be larger than the incoming ones in 2015. The countries which are aging the most in this respect are Germany and Japan, the countries of southern Europe but also Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland.

Document Type: Review Article

Publication date: June 1, 2010

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