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Scenarios for the Global Economy and Implications for Migration

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The objective of this chapter is to use scenario planning techniques to:

• Explore how the global economic, political, technological, environmental and social outlook might develop out to 2030

• Assess the implications for migration from poorer to richer nations, and

• Examine the particular policy challenges raised for OECD countries.

Five scenarios are presented. These were created for and then elaborated at a focus group discussion with migration experts organised by the OECD/ IFP secretariat in July 2008. The scenarios were subsequently developed further based on the focus group input. They were then reviewed and discussed at an OECD/IFP expert workshop in December 2008 and refined as a result of those discussions. A fuller description of the scenario development process is set out in Annex 4.A1.

Document Type: Review Article

Publication date: August 1, 2009

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