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A Gamma-Poisson model for vertical location and frequency of buds on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) leaders

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The aim of this work was to model the vertical location and number of branch primordia (buds) on the leader of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud.) trees in central British Columbia. For species such as lodgepole pine, where branches occur in clusters rather than individually, the Gamma-Poisson model provides a natural framework for describing and simulating the distribution of buds on the annual shoot. Parameters in the model are identifiable with measurable attributes, that is, the average number of clusters per unit length of the annual shoot and the average number of buds per cluster, and can be related to explanatory variables via a log link. Applicability of the Gamma-Poisson model was demonstrated for a sample of 58 lodgepole pine trees ranging in age from 29 to 103years old. The agreement between observed and expected cluster counts and spacing, cluster sizes, and total number of branches was good. Height to crown base and length of the annual shoot were selected as the best predictors of the number of clusters and number of buds per cluster, respectively, although other single variables were also identified as having significant predictive value.

Cette étude avait pour but de modéliser la position verticale des primordiums caulinaires (bourgeons) sur la flèche de pins tordus (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) dans le centre de la Colombie-Britannique. Pour des espèces comme le pin tordu sur lesquelles les branches apparaissent en faisceaux plutôt qu’individuellement, le modèle gamma-Poisson fournit un cadre naturel pour décrire et simuler la distribution des bourgeons sur la pousse annuelle. Les paramètres du modèle sont identifiables avec des attributs mesurables: le nombre moyen de faisceaux par longueur unitaire de la pousse annuelle et le nombre moyen de bourgeons par faisceau, et peuvent être reliés aux variables explicatives de façon logarithmique. L’applicabilité du modèle gamma-Poisson a été démontrée pour un échantillon de 58 pins tordus âgés de 29 à 103 ans. Il y avait une bonne concordance entre les valeurs observées et attendues pour le nombre et l’espacement des faisceaux, la dimension des faisceaux et le nombre total de branches. La hauteur à partir de la base de la cime et la longueur de la pousse annuelle ont été respectivement retenues comme meilleurs prédicteurs du nombre de faisceaux et du nombre de bourgeons par faisceau, quoique d’autres variables individuelles dont la valeur de prédiction est significative aient aussi été identifiées.

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: October 1, 2010

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