Skip to main content

Assessing the impact of current and projected climates on Douglas-Fir productivity in British Columbia, Canada, using a process-based model (3-PG)

Buy Article:

$50.00 plus tax (Refund Policy)


Predicted climate change is expected to significantly affect tree growth in many areas. We used a process-based model (Physiological Principles for Predicting Growth, 3-PG) to evaluate how climatic variation might alter growth of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. glauca (Beissn.) Franco and Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. menziesii) across biogeoclimatic zones in British Columbia. The results indicate that there will be significant changes in site index (defined as the height (in metres) of dominant trees at 50years) over this century. In the interior, a reduction in site index is likely, particularly in stands with mid-range values of site index (25–30m), with many of the interior bioecoclimatic zones predicted to experience a gradual mean decrease in site index by up to 10%. Individual sites may decrease by as much as 40% from current values. In contrast, site index along the coast overall is predicted to increase to a maximum of 43m by 2080. In the Coastal Western Hemlock zone, however, mean site index is likely to increase from 26m to only 34m. We believe that combining process-based models with fine-spatial resolution climate forecasts offers a viable approach to assess future changes in forest productivity.

On prédit que les changements climatiques auront une influence significative sur la croissance des arbres dans plusieurs régions. Nous avons utilisé un modèle de processus (Principes physiologiques pour prédire la croissance, 3-PG) pour évaluer de quelle façon les variations climatiques pourraient modifier la croissance des douglas de Menzies bleu et typique (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. glauca (Beissn.) Franco et Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. menziesii) dans les différentes zones biogéoclimatiques en Colombie-Britannique. Les résultats indiquent qu’il y aura des changements importants de l’indice de station (défini comme la hauteur en mètres des arbres dominants à l’âge de 50 ans) au cours de ce siècle. Il est probable que l’indice de station diminue dans la zone intérieure, particulièrement dans les peuplements dont l’indice de station se situe parmi les valeurs intermédiaires (25–30m) et on prédit que plusieurs des zones biogéoclimatiques de l’intérieur vont subir une diminution moyenne graduelle de l’indice de station pouvant atteindre 10%. La diminution pourrait atteindre 40 % par rapport aux valeurs actuelles dans certaines stations. À l’inverse, on prédit que l’indice de station le long de la côte augmentera globalement jusqu’à un maximum de 43m vers 2080. Cependant, dans la zone côtière de la pruche de l’Ouest l’indice de station augmentera probablement de 26m à seulement 34m. Nous croyons que la combinaison des modèles de processus et de la prédiction du climat avec une haute résolution spatiale offre une approche viable pour évaluer les changements futurs de productivité forestière.

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: March 1, 2010

More about this publication?
  • Published since 1971, this monthly journal features articles, reviews, notes and commentaries on all aspects of forest science, including biometrics and mensuration, conservation, disturbance, ecology, economics, entomology, fire, genetics, management, operations, pathology, physiology, policy, remote sensing, social science, soil, silviculture, wildlife and wood science, contributed by internationally respected scientists. It also publishes special issues dedicated to a topic of current interest.
  • Information for Authors
  • Submit a Paper
  • Subscribe to this Title
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Sample Issue
  • Reprints & Permissions
  • Ingenta Connect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites

Access Key

Free Content
Free content
New Content
New content
Open Access Content
Open access content
Subscribed Content
Subscribed content
Free Trial Content
Free trial content
Cookie Policy
Cookie Policy
Ingenta Connect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more