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How to validate a length-based model of single-species fish stock dynamics

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Abstract:

This paper validates a new length-based model of the dynamics of fish stocks or crustaceans by hierarchically testing statistical hypotheses and thereby investigating model complexity. The approach is based entirely on scientific survey data and on determination of the statistical distributions of the number of fish caught per haul in each length class. In our example, the negative binomial distribution is statistically accepted and linked to the population level through the new length-based model. The model is derived from the characteristics of continuous recruitment, individually based growth, and continuous, length-dependent mortality rates. Continuous recruitment with annually varying recruitment peaks and individually based growth was crucial for obtaining a model that could be statistically accepted. Natural mortality was estimated as well by the model. The model was applied to survey data for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic. Its simple generic nature, as well as the validation procedure, is useful in studying and understanding life history and stock dynamics.

Notre travail valide un nouveau modèle de la dynamique des stocks de poissons basé sur les longueurs en testant des hypothèses statistiques de manière hiérarchique; il examine ainsi la complexité du modèle. La méthode se base entièrement sur des données d'inventaire scientifique et sur la détermination des distributions statistiques des nombres de poissons capturés par trait de récolte dans chacune des classes de longueur. Nous acceptons dans notre exemple une distribution binômiale n égative et nous la relions au niveau de la population à l'aide du nouveau modèle basé sur les longueurs. Le modèle est dérivé des caractéristiques du recrutement continu, de la croissance individuelle et des taux de mortalité continus en fonction de la longueur. Le recrutement continu avec des pics de recrutement qui varient d'une année à l'autre et la croissance basée sur les individus sont de grande importance pour l'élaboration d'un modèle qui soit statistiquement acceptable. Le modèle estime aussi la mortalité naturelle. Nous avons appliqu é le modèle à des données d'inventaire de la morue franche (Gadus morhua) de la Baltique. La nature générique simple et la procédure de validation du modèle le rendent utile pour l'étude et la compréhension des cycles biologiques et de la dynamique des stocks.[Traduit par la Rédaction]

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: November 1, 2006

More about this publication?
  • Published continuously since 1901 (under various titles), this monthly journal is the primary publishing vehicle for the multidisciplinary field of aquatic sciences. It publishes perspectives (syntheses, critiques, and re-evaluations), discussions (comments and replies), articles, and rapid communications, relating to current research on cells, organisms, populations, ecosystems, or processes that affect aquatic systems. The journal seeks to amplify, modify, question, or redirect accumulated knowledge in the field of fisheries and aquatic science. Occasional supplements are dedicated to single topics or to proceedings of international symposia.
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