Modelling ice cover, timing of spring stratification, and end-of-season mixing depth in small Precambrian Shield lakes

Authors: Cahill, Kendra L; Gunn, John M; Futter, Martyn N

Source: Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Volume 62, Number 9, September 2005 , pp. 2134-2142(9)

Publisher: NRC Research Press

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Abstract:

From a 3-year study of 21 northern Ontario lakes, models were developed to determine the duration of ice cover, predict the timing of spring stratification, and predict the end-of-season mixing depth. The model to determine lake freeze and thaw dates was based on the daily variability of water temperature measured with a data logger suspended 1 and 2 m below the surface. The model to predict the duration of time (days) from lake thaw to lake stratification was developed using the mean May air temperature (degrees Celsius), dissolved organic carbon, and lake surface area (r2 = 0.79). The end-of-season mixing depth was best predicted using days to stratification and dissolved organic carbon concentration (r2 = 0.72). By applying a simple climate change scenario model, we were able to show that increased air temperature, rather than increased water clarity, was the most important factor affecting the timing of stratification. In contrast, lake clarity was the most important factor affecting end-of-season mixing depth in small Shield lakes.

Dans une étude de 3 ans de 21 lacs du nord de l'Ontario, nous avons mis au point des modèles qui déterminent la durée de la couverture de glace et qui prédisent le calendrier de la stratification du printemps et la profondeur de la couche de brassage en fin de saison. Le modèle qui détermine les dates de gel et de dégel se base sur la variabilité journalière de la température de l'eau mesurée sur des enregistreurs de données suspendus à 1 et 2 m sous la surface de l'eau. Le modèle qui prédit la durée de l'intervalle de temps (jours) entre le dégel du lac et sa stratification est basé sur la température moyenne de l'air en mai (degrés Celsius), le carbone organique dissous et la surface du lac (r2 = 0,79). La profondeur de la couche de brassage en fin de saison peut être mieux prédite à partir de l'intervalle entre le dégel et la stratification et de la concentration de carbone organique dissous (r2 = 0,72). En utilisant un modèle simple de scénario de changement climatique, nous avons réussi à montrer que la température de l'air accrue, plus que la clarté plus grande de l'eau, est le facteur le plus important à affecter le calendrier de la stratification. En revanche, la clarté du lac est le facteur le plus important qui affecte la profondeur de la couche de brassage en fin de saison dans les petits lacs du Bouclier canadien.[Traduit par la Rédaction]

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: September 1, 2005

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  • Published continuously since 1901 (under various titles), this monthly journal is the primary publishing vehicle for the multidisciplinary field of aquatic sciences. It publishes perspectives (syntheses, critiques, and re-evaluations), discussions (comments and replies), articles, and rapid communications, relating to current research on cells, organisms, populations, ecosystems, or processes that affect aquatic systems. The journal seeks to amplify, modify, question, or redirect accumulated knowledge in the field of fisheries and aquatic science. Occasional supplements are dedicated to single topics or to proceedings of international symposia.
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