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Multispecies modelling of some components of the marine community of northern and central Patagonia, Argentina

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Using a bioenergetic and allometric approach, we developed multispecies trophodynamic models of the marine community of northern and central Patagonia in the southwestern South Atlantic Ocean that included hake (Merluccius hubbsi), squid (Illex argentinus), anchovy (Engraulis anchoita), and South American sea lions (Otaria flavescens). We used these to explore the effects of model structure and parameter uncertainty on predictions of the effects of different management regimes using continuation and bifurcation analysis. We considered five different functional responses and used the Akaike Information Criterion for model selection. The best models involved laissez-faire Holling Type III-shaped functional responses and the worst one corresponded to the Ecosim form. These models showed many similar behaviours but also showed marked differences in some exploitation scenarios. This suggests that using a single model structure as the basis for managing these stocks could lead to misleading, and potentially dangerous, conclusions.

Une approche bioénergétique et allométrique nous sert à mettre au point des modèles trophodynamiques multispécifiques de la communauté marine du nord et du centre de la Patagonie dans le sud-ouest de l'Atlantique Sud qui regroupe le merlu argentin (Merluccius hubbsi), l'encornet rouge argentin (Illex argentinus), l'anchois (Engraulis anchoita) et le lion de mer austral (Otaria flavescens). Les modèles nous permettent d'étudier, à l'aide d'une analyse de continuation-bifurcation, les effets de la structure du modèle et de l'incertitude des paramètres sur les prédictions des effets de différents régimes de gestion. Nous examinons cinq différents types de réponses fonctionnelles et utilisons le critère d'information d'Akaike pour le choix du modèle. Le meilleur modèle contient des réponses fonctionnelles de type « laisser-aller » de forme III de Holling et le pire correspond à la forme Ecosim. Ces modèles possèdent plusieurs comportements similaires, mais ils présentent des différences marquées pour certains scénarios d'exploitation. Cette observation montre que l'utilisation d'une seule structure de modèle comme base de la gestion de ces stocks pourrait mener à des conclusions trompeuses et potentiellement dangereuses.[Traduit par la Rédaction]

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: July 1, 2005

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  • Published continuously since 1901 (under various titles), this monthly journal is the primary publishing vehicle for the multidisciplinary field of aquatic sciences. It publishes perspectives (syntheses, critiques, and re-evaluations), discussions (comments and replies), articles, and rapid communications, relating to current research on cells, organisms, populations, ecosystems, or processes that affect aquatic systems. The journal seeks to amplify, modify, question, or redirect accumulated knowledge in the field of fisheries and aquatic science. Occasional supplements are dedicated to single topics or to proceedings of international symposia.
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