Simple representation of the dynamics of biomass error propagation for stock assessment models

$50.00 plus tax (Refund Policy)

Buy Article:

Abstract:

Errors in estimates of current exploitable biomass from age-structured stock assessment models typically propagate over time as though they had been computed by using a very simple Kalman filter equation. This equation shows that persistent overestimates of biomass during stock declines are caused mainly by three factors: first-order autoregressive effects of past errors, hyperstability in relative abundance indices, and overestimates of current recruitment. Besides exposing these main causes of bias in biomass estimation, the equation can be used to develop very efficient closed-loop or management performance simulations and to provide timely biomass estimates in situations where it is not practical or economical to carry out full assessments every year.

Les erreurs des estimations de biomasse courante exploitable dans les modèles d'évaluation de stock avec structure en âge se répercutent généralement dans le temps comme si elles avaient été calculées à l'aide d'une équation très simple du filtre de Kalman. Cette équation démontre que des surestimations répétées de la biomasse alors que les stocks diminuent peuvent être dues à trois facteurs, soit, les effets d'autorégression de premier ordre des erreurs du passé, l'hyperstabilité des indices d'abondance relative et la surestimation du recrutement actuel. En plus de mettre en lumière ces causes principales d'erreur dans les estimations de biomasse, l'équation peut servir à mettre au point des simulations très efficaces en boucle fermée ou de performance de gestion et elle peut fournir des estimations de la biomasse en temps opportun lorsqu'il n'est pas pratique ou économique de faire une évaluation complète chaque année.[Traduit par la Rédaction]

Document Type: Rapid Communication

Publication date: July 1, 2004

More about this publication?
  • Published continuously since 1901 (under various titles), this monthly journal is the primary publishing vehicle for the multidisciplinary field of aquatic sciences. It publishes perspectives (syntheses, critiques, and re-evaluations), discussions (comments and replies), articles, and rapid communications, relating to current research on cells, organisms, populations, ecosystems, or processes that affect aquatic systems. The journal seeks to amplify, modify, question, or redirect accumulated knowledge in the field of fisheries and aquatic science. Occasional supplements are dedicated to single topics or to proceedings of international symposia.
  • Information for Authors
  • Submit a Paper
  • Subscribe to this Title
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Sample Issue
  • Reprints & Permissions
  • ingentaconnect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites
Related content

Tools

Favourites

Share Content

Access Key

Free Content
Free content
New Content
New content
Open Access Content
Open access content
Subscribed Content
Subscribed content
Free Trial Content
Free trial content
Cookie Policy
X
Cookie Policy
ingentaconnect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more