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Estimating salmon stock–recruitment relationships from catch and escapement data

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Abstract:

This paper presents an analysis of stock–recruitment data that takes account of natural variation in stock productivity (process error) and inaccurate escapement counts (measurement error). We formulate the model using dynamic state variables and take advantage of related techniques for parameter estimation, such as an extended Kalman filter. Our recruitment function depends explicitly on parameters relevant to management and includes various cases of historical interest. We adopt Bayesian methods for assessing uncertainty and use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to obtain posterior samples. A worked example, based on simulated data, illustrates geometric relationships among model choices, estimated recruitment curves, and data interpretations.

Notre analyse des relations stock–recrutement tient compte de la variation naturelle de la productivité des stocks (erreurs de traitement) et des mesures erronées d'échappements (erreurs de mesure). Nous avons élaboré le modèle à l'aide de variables d'état dynamique et avons utilisé des techniques apparentées pour l'estimation des paramètres, telles que le filtre de Kalman étendu. La fonction qui décrit le recrutement est explicitement reliée à des paramètres pertinents à la gestion et inclut divers cas d'intérêt historique. Des méthodes bayésiennes ont servi à déterminer l'incertitude et des méthodes de Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov (MCMC), à produire les échantillons a posteriori. Un exemple détaillé, basé sur des données simulées, illustre les relations de type géométrique qui existent entre les choix de modèles, les courbes estimées de recrutement et l'Interprétation des données. [Traduit par la rédaction]

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: March 1, 2002

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  • Published continuously since 1901 (under various titles), this monthly journal is the primary publishing vehicle for the multidisciplinary field of aquatic sciences. It publishes perspectives (syntheses, critiques, and re-evaluations), discussions (comments and replies), articles, and rapid communications, relating to current research on cells, organisms, populations, ecosystems, or processes that affect aquatic systems. The journal seeks to amplify, modify, question, or redirect accumulated knowledge in the field of fisheries and aquatic science. Occasional supplements are dedicated to single topics or to proceedings of international symposia.
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