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Developing Baltic cod recruitment models. II. Incorporation of environmental variability and species interaction

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Abstract:

We investigate whether a process-oriented approach based on the results of field, laboratory, and modelling studies can be used to develop a stock–environment–recruitment model for Central Baltic cod (Gadus morhua). Based on exploratory statistical analysis, significant variables influencing survival of early life stages and varying systematically among spawning sites were incorporated into stock–recruitment models, first for major cod spawning sites and then combined for the entire Central Baltic. Variables identified included potential egg production by the spawning stock, abiotic conditions affecting survival of eggs, predation by clupeids on eggs, larval transport, and cannibalism. Results showed that recruitment in the most important spawning area, the Bornholm Basin, during 1976–1995 was related to egg production; however, other factors affecting survival of the eggs (oxygen conditions, predation) were also significant and when incorporated explained 69% of the variation in 0-group recruitment. In other spawning areas, variable hydrographic conditions did not allow for regular successful egg development. Hence, relatively simple models proved sufficient to predict recruitment of 0-group cod in these areas, suggesting that key biotic and abiotic processes can be successfully incorporated into recruitment models.

Nous cherchons à savoir si une approche axée sur les processus et basée sur des études de terrain, de laboratoire et de modélisation peut servir à développer un modèle stock–milieu–recrutement pour la morue franche (Gadus morhua) de la Baltique centrale. À la suite d'une analyse statistique exploratoire, des variables significatives qui influençaient la survie des premiers stades et qui variaient systématiquement d'une site de fraie à un autre ont été incorporées dans des modèles de stock–recrutement, d'abord pour les sites de fraie les plus importants et ensuite combinés pour toute la Baltique centrale. Les variables identifiées comprennent la production potentielle d'oeufs par le stock de géniteurs, les conditions abiotiques qui affectent la survie des oeufs, la prédation des oeufs par les clupéidés, le transport des larves et le cannibalisme. Les résultats indiquent que le recrutement durant la période 1976 à 1995 au site de fraie le plus important, le bassin de Bornholm, était en relation avec la production d'oeufs; cependant, d'autres facteurs significatifs affectaient la survie des oeufs (oxygénation, prédation) et, une fois incorporés, ils expliquaient 69% de la variation dans le recrutement du groupe 0. À d'autres sites de fraie, les conditions hydrographiques variables ne permettaient pas un développement normal et réussi des oeufs. Ainsi, des modèles relativement simples se sont avérés adéquats pour prédire le recrutement des morues du groupe 0 dans ces sites, ce qui laisse croire que des processus dominants abiotiques et biotiques peuvent être incorporés avec succès dans les modèles de recrutement.[Traduit par la Rédaction]

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: August 1, 2001

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  • Published continuously since 1901 (under various titles), this monthly journal is the primary publishing vehicle for the multidisciplinary field of aquatic sciences. It publishes perspectives (syntheses, critiques, and re-evaluations), discussions (comments and replies), articles, and rapid communications, relating to current research on cells, organisms, populations, ecosystems, or processes that affect aquatic systems. The journal seeks to amplify, modify, question, or redirect accumulated knowledge in the field of fisheries and aquatic science. Occasional supplements are dedicated to single topics or to proceedings of international symposia.
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