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A semiparametric model to examine stock–recruitment relationships incorporating environmental data

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Abstract:

A novel semiparametric model that can incorporate environmental and fishery data is developed to analyze stock–recruitment relationships. Unlike traditional stock–recruitment models that assume a log-linear relationship between recruitment and environmental and fishery variables, the new model uses a nonparametric smoothing algorithm, which helps quantify the underlying empirical relationships and enables more accurate parameter estimates. Bootstrap resampling is used to evaluate uncertainties in the model parameters. Distribution plots can be produced for stock–recruitment productivity and capacity parameters. This approach is applied to southeast Alaska pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) with sea surface temperature as the environmental variable and West Coast Vancouver Island herring (Clupea harengus) with sea surface temperature and hake biomass as two environmental variables. Results from diagnostic tests indicate that our model performed better than the traditional Ricker model and a Ricker model that was extended to include environmental effects.

On trouvera ici un nouveau modèle semiparamétrique capable d'incorporer les données environnementales et halieutiques dans l'analyse des relations entre le stock et le recrutement. À l'opposé des modèles traditionnels de stock–recrutement qui posent au départ l'existence d'une relation log-linéaire entre le recrutement et les variables environnementales et halieutiques, le nouveau modèle utilise un algorithme non-paramétrique de lissage qui aide à quantifier les relations empiriques sous-jacentes et permet une estimation plus précise des paramètres. Le ré-échantillonnage par bootstrap sert à évaluer les incertitudes dans les paramètres du modèle. Des diagrammes de dispersion peuvent être générés pour les paramètres de productivité et de capacité du modèle stock–recrutement. Le modèle est appliqué à une population de Saumons roses du sud-est de l'Alaska (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) avec la température de surface de la mer comme variable environnementale, ainsi qu'à une population de harengs de la côte occidentale de l'Île de Vancouver (Clupea harengus) où la température de surface de la mer et la biomasse des merlus sont les variables environnementales. Des tests diagnostics révèlent que le nouveau modèle fonctionne mieux que le modèle traditionnel de Ricker et qu'un modèle de Ricker modifié de façon à inclure les effets de l'environnement.[Traduit par la Rédaction]

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: 2001-06-01

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  • Published continuously since 1901 (under various titles), this monthly journal is the primary publishing vehicle for the multidisciplinary field of aquatic sciences. It publishes perspectives (syntheses, critiques, and re-evaluations), discussions (comments and replies), articles, and rapid communications, relating to current research on cells, organisms, populations, ecosystems, or processes that affect aquatic systems. The journal seeks to amplify, modify, question, or redirect accumulated knowledge in the field of fisheries and aquatic science. Occasional supplements are dedicated to single topics or to proceedings of international symposia.
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