Authors: Gouldby, B. P.; Sayers, P. B.; Panzeri, M. C.; Lanyon, J. E.

Source: Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, Volume 37, Number 3, March 2010 , pp. 496-507(12)

Publisher: NRC Research Press

Abstract:

Increasingly, an understanding of flood risk across regions and nations, and an ability to explore how these might change in time, is seen as a prerequisite to effective and efficient flood risk management. In response, specific flood risk analysis methods have been developed that are both accurate and fast to run. Although widely acknowledged as desirable, it has not previously been possible to quantify the uncertainty associated with the assessed flood probability, consequence, or risk. To help overcome this deficiency, an efficient method for the propagation of epistemic uncertainties through large-scale flood risk system models has been developed and trialed for three pilot catchments. The approach is allied to an efficient sensitivity analysis that enables the influence of individual uncertainties on the output quantity of risk to be isolated, enabling future research, development, and data-gathering efforts to be focused.

Une meilleure compréhension des risques d'inondation à travers régions et pays et la possibilité d'explorer la manière dont ces risques changent dans le temps sont perçus comme préalable à une gestion efficiente et efficace des risques d'inondation. Ainsi, des méthodes spécifiques, précises et rapides d'analyse des risques d'inondation ont été développées. Il était impossible auparavant, bien que cela ait été généralement reconnu comme étant désirable, de quantifier l'incertitude associée à la probabilité, aux conséquences ou aux risques d'inondation. Pour aider à surmonter ce manque, une méthode efficiente de propagation d'incertitudes épistémiques dans des modèles de risques d'inondation à grande échelle a été développée et mise à l'épreuve dans trois bassins hydrographiques pilotes. Cette approche est associée à une analyse de sensibilité efficace qui permet d'isoler l'influence des incertitudes individuelles sur la quantité de risque généré (permettant de cibler les recherches à venir, le développement et la collecte de données).

Document Type: Research article

Publication date: 2010-03-01

More about this publication?

• Published since 1974, this monthly publication is the official journal of the Canadian Society for Civil Engineering. It contains articles on environmental engineering, hydrotechnical engineering, structure engineering, construction engineering, engineering mechanics, and engineering materials, and a history of civil engineering. Contributors include recognized researchers and practitioners in industry, government, and academe. New developments in engineering design and construction are also featured.
• Information for Authors
• Submit a Paper
• Subscribe to this Title
• Terms & Conditions
• Sample Issue
• Reprints & Permissions
• ingentaconnect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites

Related content

• In this: publication
• By this: publisher
• In this Subject: Engineering/Technology ,  General & Civil Engineering
• By this author: Gouldby, B. P. ;  Sayers, P. B. ;  Panzeri, M. C. ;  Lanyon, J. E.

Website © Publishing Technology. Article copyright remains with the publisher, society or author(s) as specified within the article.

• Terms and conditions
• Privacy policy
• Information for advertisers