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Empirical Models of Extreme Weather Events on Shut-In Production in the Gulf of Mexico

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Over the past two years, the vulnerability of offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico has been brought to light by extensive damage to oil and gas facilities and pipelines resulting from Hurricanes Ivan, Katrina, and Rita. In an average year, three tropical storms enter the Gulf with hurricane strength. When a hurricane threatens, oil and gas production and transportation pipelines in the expected path of the storm shut down, crews are evacuated, and refineries and processing plants along the Gulf Coast close. The purpose of this paper is quantify the impact extreme weather has on shut-in production in the Gulf of Mexico using production data and weather events from 1950-2003. A description of the model constructions and results is presented. This paper also reviews the manner in which operators respond to emergency evacuation and develops regression models of shut-in production based on the physical characteristics and timing of weather events.

Document Type: Research Article


Publication date: March 1, 2006

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  • The Marine Technology Society Journal is the flagship publication of the Marine Technology Society. It publishes the highest caliber, peer-reviewed papers on subjects of interest to the society: marine technology, ocean science, marine policy and education. The Journal is dedicated to publishing timely special issues on emerging ocean community concerns while also showcasing general interest and student-authored works.
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