IngentaConnect A World-Wide Perspective of Gas in the 21st Century

Author: Lerche I.

Source: Energy Exploration & Exploitation, Volume 20, Numbers 2-3, 1 February 2002 , pp. 125-151(27)

Publisher: Multi-Science Publishing Co Ltd

Abstract:

Current availability of gas and current distribution of gas are examined in relation to potential gas discoveries, their likely worldwide distributions, and the present-day markets for gas. Current demands for gas in relation to future likely demands are also evaluated in respect of traditional gas uses. Strategies for evaluating likely new disciplines for gas usage are related to government policies and national security interests. The economic concerns of well-head price, pipelines, and liquefaction are considered in relation to evolving technologies for extracting known reserves, predicting the discoverability of unknown fields, and setting trends for exploration beyond the year 2000. The relation of gas to oil is also considered. The up-shot of all of these factors, evaluated in an integrated manner, would seem to imply that, through about the first third of this century, adequate proven and potential supplies of gas will be available; by the middle of the century there are likely to be local to regional shortages of both reserves of gas as well as supplies of gas in relation to domestic and industrial consumption. By the last third of the century it would appear that gas will not be a dominant energy source in relation to oil, solar, nuclear fusion or other alternatives. Continued industrialization of nations will shorten these lifetime estimates as well as raise significantly the price of gas on a competitive market demand basis.

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