A Formal Model of Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations

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We present a formal model of post-conflict stabilization and reconstruction operations. Following an overview of the relevant nation building literature, we specify a closed system of nonlinear, first order, non-autonomous differential equations into a Formal Stabilization & Reconstruction Operations Model (FSROM). Subsequently, the model is empirically tested with panel data from six S&R operations in the latter half of the 20th century using seemingly unrelated regression estimation (SURE) techniques to derive coefficient estimates for post-conflict nation building. We also provide qualitative assessments of our model fit from a case study perspective. The FSROM is then applied to current Operation Iraqi Freedom S&R actions. Our initial FSROM efforts indicate that future research should focus on increasing the temporal & geospatial resolution of specified variables as well as adding more operationally relevant factors.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5711/morj.14.3.5

Publication date: September 1, 2009

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  • Military Operations Research will no longer be hosted by ingentaconnect as of March 1, 2015. Subscriptions and access to issues for subscribers will be available through the MORS website Journal page here: http://www.mors.org/Publications/MOR-Journal For assistance please contact Liz Marriott liz.marriott@mors.org or 703-933-9071.
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