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Modeling Maritime Interception OperationsNCW and the Value of Information

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We present an operational-level model of maritime interception operations (MIO) that consists of a prioritized queue with a Bayesian network to supply the priorities. The aim is to represent the impact on the effectiveness of the MIO of the availability of information on target-vessel intentions. It may be thought of as reachback to databases containing compilations of past experience of a given vessel and/or intelligence information on current activities. The conclusions of this work fall under three headings. Firstly, on modeling methodology, queueing theory once again shows its utility for modeling military operations and the Bayesian network provides a useful representation of the influence of information availability on decision making. Secondly, on the conduct of MIO, we derive a range of specific conclusions spanning issues such as the situations in which vessel prioritization is of most use, relative effectiveness of various concepts of operations, and the most useful types of information. Thirdly, this work provides an example of a model of military operations that quantifies the value added by adopting a network-centric orientation.

Keywords: Application Area: Maritime Interception; OR Methodology: Queuing Theory and Bayesian Belief Network

Document Type: Research Article


Publication date: December 1, 2008

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