Modeling Maritime Interception OperationsNCW and the Value of Information

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Abstract:

We present an operational-level model of maritime interception operations (MIO) that consists of a prioritized queue with a Bayesian network to supply the priorities. The aim is to represent the impact on the effectiveness of the MIO of the availability of information on target-vessel intentions. It may be thought of as reachback to databases containing compilations of past experience of a given vessel and/or intelligence information on current activities. The conclusions of this work fall under three headings. Firstly, on modeling methodology, queueing theory once again shows its utility for modeling military operations and the Bayesian network provides a useful representation of the influence of information availability on decision making. Secondly, on the conduct of MIO, we derive a range of specific conclusions spanning issues such as the situations in which vessel prioritization is of most use, relative effectiveness of various concepts of operations, and the most useful types of information. Thirdly, this work provides an example of a model of military operations that quantifies the value added by adopting a network-centric orientation.
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  • Military Operations Research is the leading peer-reviewed journal publishing articles in the fields that describe operations research (OR) methodologies and theories used in key military applications.

    MOR specifically invites papers that are significant military OR applications. Of particular interest are papers that present case studies showing innovative OR applications, apply OR to major policy issues, introduce interesting new problem areas, highlight educational issues, and document the history of military OR.
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