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Modeling Cost and Schedule UncertaintiesA Work Breakdown Structure Perspective

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Abstract:

This paper presents an application of bivariate probability theory to modeling cost and schedule uncertainties. It has long been recognized that program cost and schedule are correlated; however, formal methods have not been developed in the cost analysis community to study their joint behavior. To address this, bivariate models for approximating the joint and conditional probabilities of program cost and schedule are presented. Specifically, the bivariate lognormal and bivariate normal-lognormal models are discussed. The statistical properties of these models are provided. A cost analysis application is presented to illustrate their use in a practical context.

Keywords: Application Areas: Decision-making Under Uncertainty; Application Areas: Resources Analysis; Application Areas: Risk Analysis; OR Methodology: Probability theory

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5711/morj.2.1.37

Publication date: March 1, 1996

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  • Military Operations Research will no longer be hosted by ingentaconnect as of March 1, 2015. Subscriptions and access to issues for subscribers will be available through the MORS website Journal page here: http://www.mors.org/Publications/MOR-Journal For assistance please contact Liz Marriott liz.marriott@mors.org or 703-933-9071.
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