Modeling Cost and Schedule UncertaintiesA Work Breakdown Structure Perspective

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This paper presents an application of bivariate probability theory to modeling cost and schedule uncertainties. It has long been recognized that program cost and schedule are correlated; however, formal methods have not been developed in the cost analysis community to study their joint behavior. To address this, bivariate models for approximating the joint and conditional probabilities of program cost and schedule are presented. Specifically, the bivariate lognormal and bivariate normal-lognormal models are discussed. The statistical properties of these models are provided. A cost analysis application is presented to illustrate their use in a practical context.
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  • Military Operations Research is the leading peer-reviewed journal publishing articles in the fields that describe operations research (OR) methodologies and theories used in key military applications.

    MOR specifically invites papers that are significant military OR applications. Of particular interest are papers that present case studies showing innovative OR applications, apply OR to major policy issues, introduce interesting new problem areas, highlight educational issues, and document the history of military OR.
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