Tellus A

PREFACE
pp. 217-218(2)

The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting – I. Basic concept
pp. 219-233(15)
Authors: HAGEDORN, RENATE; DOBLAS-REYES, FRANCISCO J.; PALMER, T. N.

The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting – II. Calibration and combination
pp. 234-252(19)
Authors: DOBLAS-REYES, FRANCISCO J.; HAGEDORN, RENATE; PALMER, T. N.

Forecast assimilation: a unified framework for the combination of multi-model weather and climate predictions
pp. 253-264(12)
Authors: STEPHENSON, D. B.; COELHO, C. A. S.; DOBLAS-REYES, F. J.; BALMASEDA, M.

A new view of seasonal forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble forecasts
pp. 265-279(15)
Authors: WEISHEIMER, ANTJE; SMITH, LEONARD A.; JUDD, KEVIN

A multi-model superensemble algorithm for seasonal climate prediction using DEMETER forecasts
pp. 280-289(10)
Authors: YUN, W. T.; STEFANOVA, L.; MITRA, A. K.; KUMAR, T. S. V. VIJAYA; DEWAR, W.; KRISHNAMURTI, T. N.

Winter climate regimes over the North Atlantic and European region in ERA40 reanalysis and DEMETER seasonal hindcasts
pp. 290-307(18)
Authors: FIL, C.; DUBUS, L.

Actual and potential skill of seasonal predictions using the CNRM contribution to DEMETER: coupled versus uncoupled model
pp. 308-319(12)
Authors: GUÉRÉMY, JEAN-FRANÇOIS; DÉQUÉ, MICHEL; BRAUN, ALAIN; PIEDELIÈVRE, JEAN-PHILIPPE

A performance comparison of coupled and uncoupled versions of the Met Office seasonal prediction general circulation model
pp. 320-339(20)
Authors: GRAHAM, R. J.; GORDON, M.; MCLEAN, P. J.; INESON, S.; HUDDLESTON, M. R.; DAVEY, M. K.; BROOKSHAW, A.; BARNES, R. T. H.

A coupled method for initializing El Niño Southern Oscillation forecasts using sea surface temperature
pp. 340-356(17)
Authors: KEENLYSIDE, NOEL; LATIF, MOJIB; BOTZET, MICHAEL; JUNGCLAUS, JOHANN; SCHULZWEIDA, UWE

Impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution on El Niño Southern Oscillation forecasts
pp. 357-374(18)
Authors: GUALDI, SILVIO; ALESSANDRI, ANDREA; NAVARRA, ANTONIO

Ensembles of global ocean analyses for seasonal climate prediction: impact of temperature assimilation
pp. 375-386(12)
Authors: ROGEL, PHILIPPE; WEAVER, ANTHONY T.; DAGET, NICOLAS; RICCI, SOPHIE; MACHU, ERIC

Seasonal forecast of tropical climate with coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models: on the respective role of the atmosphere and the ocean components in the drift of the surface temperature error
pp. 387-397(11)
Authors: LAZAR, A.; VINTZILEOS, A.; DOBLAS-REYES, F. J.; ROGEL, P.; DELECLUSE, P.

A method for statistical downscaling of seasonal ensemble predictions
pp. 398-408(11)
Authors: FEDDERSEN, HENRIK; ANDERSEN, UFFE

Statistical and dynamical downscaling of precipitation over Spain from DEMETER seasonal forecasts
pp. 409-423(15)
Authors: DÍEZ, E.; PRIMO, C.; GARCÍA-MOYA, J. A.; GUTIÉRREZ, J. M.; ORFILA, B.

Downscaling of DEMETER winter seasonal hindcasts over Northern Italy
pp. 424-434(11)
Authors: PAVAN, V.; MARCHESI, S.; MORGILLO, A.; CACCIAMANI, C.; DOBLAS-REYES, F. J.

Analysis and downscaling multi-model seasonal forecasts in Peru using self-organizing maps
pp. 435-447(13)
Authors: GUTIÉRREZ, J. M.; CANO, R.; COFIÑO, A. S.; SORDO, C.

Operational predictability of monthly average maximum temperature over the Iberian Peninsula using DEMETER simulations and downscaling
pp. 448-463(16)
Authors: FRÍAS, M. DOLORES; FERNÁNDEZ, JESÚS; SÁENZ, JON; RODRÍGUEZ-PUEBLA, CONCEPCIÓN

A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model
pp. 464-475(12)
Authors: MORSE, ANDREW P.; DOBLAS-REYES, FRANCISCO J.; HOSHEN, MOSHE B.; HAGEDORN, RENATE; PALMER, TIM N.

Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in Europe
pp. 476-487(12)
Authors: CANTELAUBE, PIERRE; TERRES, JEAN-MICHEL

Evaluation of downscaled DEMETER multi-model ensemble seasonal hindcasts in a northern Italy location by means of a model of wheat growth and soil water balance
pp. 488-497(10)
Authors: MARLETTO, V.; ZINONI, F.; CRISCUOLO, L.; FONTANA, G.; MARCHESI, S.; MORGILLO, A.; Van SOETENDAEL, M.; CEOTTO, E.; ANDERSEN, U.

Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles
pp. 498-512(15)
Authors: CHALLINOR, A. J.; SLINGO, J. M.; WHEELER, T. R.; DOBLAS–REYES, F. J.