Skip to main content

A simple scoring system for outcome prediction of ischemic stroke

Buy Article:

$43.00 plus tax (Refund Policy)

Muscari A, Puddu GM, Santoro N, Zoli M. A simple scoring system for outcome prediction of ischemic stroke. Acta Neurol Scand: 2011: 124: 334–342. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Objectives –  According to most existing models, a computer is usually needed for predicting stroke outcome. Our purpose was to construct a simple and reliable prognostic scale not requiring the use of a calculating machine.

Materials and Methods –  The scale [the Bologna Outcome Algorithm for Stroke (BOAS)] was obtained in 221 patients with ischemic stroke not undergoing thrombolysis and was then validated in a test group of 100 different patients. Outcome was assessed at 9 months as the number of dependent or dead patients (modified Rankin scale – mRS > 2).

Results –  By a preliminary systematic univariate analysis, 25 of 415 baseline variables were found to be associated with a mRS > 2 independently of stroke severity and age. Subsequent multivariable analyses led to a final model based on five dichotomous risk factors (RF): National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≥10, age ≥78, need of urinary catheter, oxygen administration, and persistence of upper limb paralysis at discharge from stroke unit. The patients with two or more RF (53%) had a mRS > 2 in 91% of cases and were dead in 42% of cases. With 0–1 RF, the two percentages were 24% and 2%, respectively (overall accuracy of prediction 83.9%, area under ROC curve [AUC] 0.891). In the test group, the accuracy was 79.0% and the AUC was 0.839.

Conclusions –  The need of urinary catheter, oxygen administration, and persistence of upper limb paralysis, together with stroke severity and advanced age, allow a simple and accurate prediction of dependency or death after ischemic stroke.
No References
No Citations
No Supplementary Data
No Article Media
No Metrics

Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: Department of Internal Medicine, Aging and Nephrological Diseases – Stroke Unit, University of Bologna and S.Orsola-Malpighi Hospital, Via Albertoni, Bologna, Italy

Publication date: 2011-11-01

  • Access Key
  • Free content
  • Partial Free content
  • New content
  • Open access content
  • Partial Open access content
  • Subscribed content
  • Partial Subscribed content
  • Free trial content
Cookie Policy
X
Cookie Policy
Ingenta Connect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more