Skip to main content

Evaluation of clinical prognostic models for suicide attempts after a major depressive episode

Buy Article:

$43.00 plus tax (Refund Policy)

Galfalvy HC, Oquendo MA, Mann JJ. Evaluation of clinical prognostic models for suicide attempts after a major depressive episode. Objective: 

In this study, we compare the performance of prognostic models of increasing complexity for prediction of future suicide attempt. Method: 

Using data from a 2-year prospective study of 304 depressed subjects, a series of Cox proportional hazard regression models were developed to predict future suicide attempt. The models were evaluated in terms of discrimination (the ability to rank subjects in order of risk), calibration (accuracy of predicted probabilities of attempt), and sensitivity and specificity of risk group stratification based on cross-validated predicted probabilities. Results: 

Although an additive model with past attempt, smoking status, and suicidal ideation achieved 75% (cross-validated) sensitivity and specificity, models that performed best in terms of discrimination included interactions between predictor variables. Conclusion: 

As several models had similar predictive power, clinical considerations and ease of interpretation may have a significant role in the final stage of model selection for assessing future suicide attempt risk.
No References
No Citations
No Supplementary Data
No Data/Media
No Metrics

Keywords: Cox proportional hazards models; attempted suicide; prediction

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: 2008-04-01

  • Access Key
  • Free content
  • Partial Free content
  • New content
  • Open access content
  • Partial Open access content
  • Subscribed content
  • Partial Subscribed content
  • Free trial content
Cookie Policy
X
Cookie Policy
Ingenta Connect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more