If you are experiencing problems downloading PDF or HTML fulltext, our helpdesk recommend clearing your browser cache and trying again. If you need help in clearing your cache, please click here . Still need help? Email help@ingentaconnect.com

Catastrophe forecasting: seeing "gray" among the "black boxes"

$60.93 plus tax (Refund Policy)

Buy Article:

Abstract:

Purpose ? The purpose of this paper is to consider the problem of using "black-box" methods to forecast catastrophe events, and illustrate the value of independent peer review. Design/methodology/approach ? The problem with black-box catastrophe forecasts is the absence of both extensive validation data and impartial peer review. These issues may be addressed by comparing black-box forecasts with a set of na´ve alternative forecasts provided by an independent party. To illustrate this approach, the historical hurricane forecasts of Dr William M. Gray, professor at Colorado State University, are considered and a simple ARIMA analysis is offered as a na´ve alternative. Findings ? The analysis shows that Dr Gray's complex forecasting methodology does in fact provide reasonable forecasts, and may indeed offer value beyond a na´ve alternative model. Originality/value ? The editorial identifies a major problem in catastrophe forecasting, and suggests one way to address this problem.

Keywords: Data analysis; Forecasting; Peer review

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/15265940610712632

Publication date: October 1, 2006

Related content

Share Content

Access Key

Free Content
Free content
New Content
New content
Open Access Content
Open access content
Subscribed Content
Subscribed content
Free Trial Content
Free trial content
Cookie Policy
X
Cookie Policy
ingentaconnect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more