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Towards long-term foresight for transport: envisioning the Finnish transport system in 2100

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PurposeThis paper aims to introduce a process for constructing long-term visions of the transport system. The vision building process is demonstrated by creating a concise test vision of the Finnish transport system in 2100. Design/methodology/approachThe vision building process combines four futures methods that support the long-term foresight approach: transition management, PESTE analysis, the futures table and the Delphi method. The process is validated with a test vision. FindingsA three-step vision building process for long-term transport system visions is structured. The three consecutive steps of the process are environmental scanning, constructing futures tables and visions, and describing visions. In addition, a demonstrative test vision is created to describe a possible future transport system in 2100 in a metropolitan Finland. The successful application of the developed method supports further work on creating full-scale strategy-driven visions. Originality/valueFutures studies analyzing transport systems and infrastructures tend to focus on short- to medium-term perspectives. This paper presents a unique method for constructing alternative long-term visions as far as 50 to 100 years into the future.
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Keywords: Finland; Foresight; Future studies; Long-term; Transport system; Transportation; Vision

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: 2012-06-01

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