Towards long-term foresight for transport: envisioning the Finnish transport system in 2100
Purpose ‐ This paper aims to introduce a process for constructing long-term visions of the transport system. The vision building process is demonstrated by creating a concise test vision of the Finnish transport system in 2100.
‐ The vision building process combines four futures methods that support the long-term foresight approach: transition management, PESTE analysis, the futures table and the Delphi method. The process is validated with a test vision.
Findings ‐ A three-step vision
building process for long-term transport system visions is structured. The three consecutive steps of the process are environmental scanning, constructing futures tables and visions, and describing visions. In addition, a demonstrative test vision is created to describe a possible future transport
system in 2100 in a metropolitan Finland. The successful application of the developed method supports further work on creating full-scale strategy-driven visions.
Originality/value ‐ Futures studies analyzing transport systems and infrastructures tend to focus on short-
to medium-term perspectives. This paper presents a unique method for constructing alternative long-term visions as far as 50 to 100 years into the future.