Science and technology foresight baker's dozen: a pocket primer of comparative and combined foresight methods

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Abstract:

PurposeThis paper aims to fill a perceived gap in the tool bag of a foresight practitioner ‐ namely the need for a quickly accessible and concise overview of the main methods being employed in contemporary foresight, and some guidance on when and how one can select or combine several methods within a single project or focus area to achieve the best results. The intention is that such a primer can be easily reproduced into a format suitable and portable for managers to consult when in project meetings to design foresight processes and select methods. Design/methodology/approachUsing a matrix table plus some text analysis and diagrams, a concise review of the dominant and most innovative tools for framing technology foresight processes is developed and summarized. FindingsThe paper produces 13 foresight methods classified, summarized and referenced with a limited selection of literature references. Practical implicationsThe intention is that the main table and diagrams can be easily copied to a standard poster or made into a pocket pamphlet for those who wish to carry the primer with them. Originality/valueThe insights in the paper are derived from the authors' foresight design and management experience, from inputs and discussions and from relevant literature sources. It is envisioned that this will be only the first pocket primer, with further editions expected in the future, as more diverse experience is gained with these methods and new approaches are tried and tested.

Keywords: Delphi method; Forward planning; Perceptual mapping

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14636681111126265

Publication date: April 12, 2011

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