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Research on emerging technology selection and assessment by technology foresight and fuzzy consistent matrix

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Abstract:

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach based on technology foresight and a fuzzy consistent matrix to select and assess emerging technologies. Design/methodology/approachThrough introducing technology foresight into emerging technology selection and assessment, an industrialization potential assessment indexes system of emerging technologies is constructed, and general procedures to assess the industrialization potential of emerging technologies based on technology foresight and a fuzzy consistent matrix are presented. FindingsIn this paper, assessment of the industrialization potential of nine different emerging technologies is provided to illustrate the application of the method. These results show that technology 1 has the best performance on industrialization potential, and technology 2 has better performance on the industrialization potential. Practical implicationsThis paper is of interest for emerging technology selection and assessment practitioners and policymakers at the industrial and government levels. Originality/valueThis paper proposes a new hybrid approach of emerging technology selection and assessment based on technology foresight and a fuzzy consistent matrix.

Keywords: Forecasting; Fuzzy logic; Research and development

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14636681011035762

Publication date: January 1, 2010

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