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Scenario planning for climate strategies development by integrating group Delphi, AHP and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps

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Abstract:

PurposeThe purpose of the paper is to present the common use of the Delphi method, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps for the development of a future scenario in correlation with climate warming. Design/methodology/approachA combination of the Delphi method, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and dynamic fuzzy cognitive maps was employed to construct a future scenario as a learning device. FindingsBased on the data, the future is not going to be so bad but also not very attractive even if it is assumed that human consciousness about global warming issues will remain high. After a few years or so it will be possible to stop negative climate processes but not possible to fix the problem in the sense that the situation we have now can be substantially improved. Practical implicationsThis paper is of interest for foresight practitioners and policy makers who want to employ a hybrid approach to scenario development. Originality/valueThe paper is the first to try to use a combination of different methods for scenario development related to climate change.

Keywords: Analytical hierarchy process; Delphi method; Forecasting; Fuzzy logic; Global warming

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14636681011035771

Publication date: January 1, 2010

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