Enhancing business and technology foresight with electronically mediated scenario process

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Abstract:

PurposeThe study discusses existing scenario methods in business and technology foresight and introduces electronically mediated scenario process in two varieties. The purpose of the study is to discuss the existing practice, position the IDEAS and SAGES methods, and outline their contribution to the state of the art. Design/methodology/approachThe paper takes the form of a literature study and conceptual discussion, illustrated with a case example of electronically mediated scenario methods. FindingsBoth of the presented scenario methods, i.e. IDEAS and SAGES, are feasible means to compose scenarios. The methods can be positioned respectively to intuitive-logical and heuristic schools of thought. The contribution to existing practice is that they consume fewer resources than do their more traditional counterparts. Research limitations/implicationsThe empirical validation of the presented methods is presently limited to case studies. Thus, the authors invite practitioners and researchers to examine the methods and to discuss the applicability of the results. Practical implicationsThe IDEAS and SAGES methods offer tools for practicing managers to conduct scenario planning with practitioners and experts in a flexible and effective manner. Originality/valueThe paper adds to the ongoing discussion on business and technology foresight by presenting the novel scenario methods, and positioning them explicitly to the existing practice.

Keywords: Conferencing; Forecasting; Group decision support systems; Organizational planning; Project planning

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14636681011035735

Publication date: January 1, 2010

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