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Technology diffusion: forecasting with bibliometric analysis and Bass model

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Abstract:

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to use bibliometric analysis to forecast RFID technology and uses the adoption of barcode scanner to model the RFID scanner adoption in the US retail market. Design/methodology/approachForecasting emerging technologies and identifying the rate of diffusion of products based on these technologies is difficult because of lack of data. This paper uses techniques such as bibliometric analysis and Bass model based on analogous products. FindingsThe authors were able to come up with a good Bass model for the adoption of RFID scanners in the retail sector. And according to the Bass model it appears that it will take at least seven or eight years for the retailers to adopt to this new technology at their point-of-sale. Originality/valueThis paper attempts to use bibliometric analysis and Bass model for forecasting technologies and provides a new research discussion as results from these two are compared.

Keywords: Forecasting; Forward planning

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14636680910963936

Publication date: May 29, 2009

mcb/273/2009/00000011/00000003/art00004
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