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The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

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Abstract:

PurposeThe paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. Design/methodology/approachThe study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes. FindingsThe paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each. Practical implicationsFuturists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques. Originality/valueScenario development is the stock-in-trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.

Keywords: Futures markets; Management techniques; Research methods

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14636680710727516

Publication date: February 27, 2007

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