Three alternative Middle East peace scenarios
Authors: Glenn, Jerome C; Gordon, Theodore J
Source: Foresight - The journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy, Volume 7, Number 2, 2005 , pp. 8-20(13)
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Abstract:Purpose - The article seeks to address the lack of serious, normative scenarios exploring peace in the Middle East. Design/methodology/approach - Three normative, backcasted scenarios were written. These were derived from literature searches, interviews with experts in the field, and input from a three-round Delphi. Actions were identified and rated by the Delphi panel in Rounds 1 and 2. Draft text with areas for comment throughout the scenarios was collected in Round 3 and used to improve the draft scenarios. Findings - The scenarios address seven preconditions for peace in the Middle East: secure borders for Israel; establishment of a viable and independent Palestinian state; resolution of the Jerusalem question; ending violence by both sides and building confidence; social and economic development; education; and resolution of Palestinian refugee status. Originality/value - The scenarios are intended for use in a variety of settings to help further the Middle East peace process.
Document Type: Research Article
Publication date: 2005-02-01