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Three alternative Middle East peace scenarios

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Abstract:

Purpose - The article seeks to address the lack of serious, normative scenarios exploring peace in the Middle East. Design/methodology/approach - Three normative, backcasted scenarios were written. These were derived from literature searches, interviews with experts in the field, and input from a three-round Delphi. Actions were identified and rated by the Delphi panel in Rounds 1 and 2. Draft text with areas for comment throughout the scenarios was collected in Round 3 and used to improve the draft scenarios. Findings - The scenarios address seven preconditions for peace in the Middle East: secure borders for Israel; establishment of a viable and independent Palestinian state; resolution of the Jerusalem question; ending violence by both sides and building confidence; social and economic development; education; and resolution of Palestinian refugee status. Originality/value - The scenarios are intended for use in a variety of settings to help further the Middle East peace process.

Keywords: Delphi Method; Middle East; Peace

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: February 1, 2005

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