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Removing the fear of uncertainty from the future: theory and practice

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Abstract:

The most important results of our recent work, the culmination of a decade of global research involving several thousand managers and professionals from large organisations, are explored in terms of how long-range planning may be undertaken more effectively by a wider range of organisations. Thus, it has proved possible to use (simpler) scenario techniques to explore their likely futures and then develop suitable robust strategies to address these - usually with only a minimal impact on the existing optimal corporate strategies. The paper also includes summaries of the wider evidence which validates the fundamental concepts underpinning the concepts involved, but - especially - it illustrates the developments by their use with Surrey County Council.

Keywords: Forecasting; Local Government; Marketing; Strategy

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680210453164

Publication date: 2002-11-01

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