Genomics and society: four scenarios for 2015

Authors: Justman M.; Bezold C.; Rowley W.R.

Source: Foresight - The journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy, Volume 4, Number 4, 2002 , pp. 29-36(8)

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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Abstract:

This paper develops four alternative scenarios depicting possible futures for genomics applications within a broader social context. The scenarios integrate forecasts for future genomics applications with key drivers that are shaping genomics. Each scenario is a narrative depiction of an alternative path towards four very different futures for genomics. The scenarios are intended to give the user the a framework to explore and test their assumptions about the future of genomics, and help them explore the wider interactions between genomics applications and society. Scenario 1, "genomics, inc.", is a "best guess extrapolation" of key drivers shaping genomics. Scenario 2, "broken promises", explores hard times for genomics. Scenario 3, "out of our control", explores the opportunities and challenges brought about by the globalisation of genomics. Scenario 4, "genomics for all", explores the successful and visionary development of genomics.

Keywords: Biotechnology; Social Sciences

Document Type: Research article

Publication date: 2002-04-01