Authors: Millett, Stephen M.; Zelman, Susan Tave

Source: Strategy and Leadership, Volume 33, Number 2, 2005 , pp. 33-40(8)

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Abstract:

<B>Purpose</B> - <IT>This case recounts how an expert scenario consultant and a team of managers at a government agency used proprietary technology to define a set of alternate futures; it describes how this scenario analysis provided a framework for understanding the existence of interlocking relationships - the logic model - among factors that determine desirable future outcomes.</IT> <B>Design/methodology/approach</B> - <IT>As a tool for forecasting and strategic planning, Battelle employs a method called interactive future simulations (IFS) that uses expert judgment, trend analysis, and cross-impact analysis for generating probabilistic alternative futures (scenarios). The tool has been used both for Battelle's own business strategy analysis and for fee-for-service projects for some 55 clients in North America, Europe, and Japan.</IT> <B>Findings</B> - <IT>The logic model showed that, higher achievement depends primarily on only two clusters of descriptors: students receiving high quality instruction aligned with academic content standards and students having the right conditions and motivation for learning.</IT> <B>Research limitations/implications</B> - <IT>Having completed the first generation of the logic model through the exercise of cross-impact analysis, the Ohio Department of Education project team will revisit the scenarios and give them increased attention. A revised logic model will be constructed in 2005.</IT> <B>Practical implications</B> - <IT>This article introduces the logic model as a potentially valuable new strategic management tool.</IT> <B>Originality/value</B> - <IT>Managers in for-profit and nonprofit organization can get a rare inside look at the process and potential of scenario analysis and the development of a logic model.</IT>

Keywords: Education; Logic; Modelling; Organizational planning; Quality; Students

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/10878570510586838

Publication date: 2005-04-01

More about this publication?

• Previously published as The Antidote

Related content

• In this: publication
• By this: publisher
• In this Subject: Business
• By this author: Millett, Stephen M. ;  Zelman, Susan Tave

Website © Publishing Technology. Article copyright remains with the publisher, society or author(s) as specified within the article.

• Terms and conditions
• Privacy policy
• Information for advertisers