The UK pig cycle: a spectral analysis

Purpose ‐ The purpose of this paper is to identify cyclical patterns in the prices and production of UK pigmeat, 1989-2008. Design/methodology/approach ‐ The approach takes the form of spectral analysis. Findings ‐ Results show evidence of both annual and seasonal cycles, but there is little evidence of a three-to-four-year cycle. The likely cause of the latter's absence is increasing imports and a changing market structure. Practical implications ‐ Conventional wisdom is that the traditional pig cycle is of three-to-four years' duration and the UK's pig policy is based partly on its existence and that the design and implementation of UK pig policy are predicated on the basis of a traditional cycle is misplaced. Originality/value ‐ No previous or recent empirical investigation of the UK pig cycle exists, perhaps because its existence is considered to be axiomatic.