Authors: García-Ferrer, Antonio; Bujosa, Marcos; de Juan, Aránzazu; Poncela, Pilar

Source: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy (JTEP), Volume 40, Number 1, January 2006 , pp. 45-67(23)

Publisher: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy

Abstract:

This paper is related to the choice of alternative types of public transport modes and its incidence in the Madrid Metropolitan Area. When planning transport facilities, two conditions are needed: efficient estimation of the users' response to changes in prices and in the characteristics of the services; and reliable predictions of demand. These two conditions are the main objectives of this paper. Given a monthly database, the authors address the first objective using a causal econometric model. As a baseline for forecasting comparisons, they also use new variants of univariate unobserved components models. Forecasting evaluation is based on a variety of accuracy measures to avoid misleading conclusions.

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Document Type: Research article

Publication date: 2006-01-01

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