A Forecast Model of Hydrologic Single Element Medium and Long-Period Based on Rough Set Theory

Authors: Si-Hui Dong¹; Hui-Cheng Zhou²; Hai-Jun Xu³

Source: Water Resources Management, Volume 18, Number 5, October 2004 , pp. 483-495(13)

Publisher: Springer

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Abstract:

On the basis of rough set theory, this paper presents the single element medium- and long-term classification forecast model that uses historical data of a hydrologic series as forecast factors. The minimal rule set, i.e., forecast pattern set, is achieved according to the principle of maximal attribute significance and rules frequency. Maximal support strength is put forward and applied to predict by using the model. The model is applied to forecast annual runoff of Dahuofang reservoir. The result indicates that the forecast model based on rough set can describe the relationship between forecast factors and forecast object efficiently and accurately. This model, which is composed of simple solution rules, can be easily understood and applied.

Keywords: attribute significance; forecast model; hydrology; medium and long-term forecast; rough set; single element; support strength

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:WARM.0000049180.27315.12

Affiliations: 1: School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China., Email: shdong@student.dlut.edu.cn 2: School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China 3: Water Supply Bureau of Liaoning province, Shenyang, China

Publication date: 2004-10-01