Relation of Lake Acidification and Recovery to Fish, Common Loon and Common Merganser Occurrence in Algoma Lakes

Author: McNicol D.K.

Source: Water, Air and Soil Pollution: Focus, Volume 2, Number 1, 2002 , pp. 151-168(18)

Publisher: Springer

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Abstract:

Models are needed that predict both spatial and temporal improvements to ecosystems following reductions of acidifying emissions that produce `acid rain'. Logistic regression models were developed for the occurrence of fish and two fish-eating birds, common loons (Gavia immer) and common mergansers (Mergus merganser), using monitoring data collected on lakes across Ontario. These models were applied in the Algoma region, including the Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW). Using the Waterfowl Acidification Response Modeling System (WARMS), several SO_2 emission reduction scenarios were simulated, i.e. those contributing to measured 1982–1986 sulphate deposition levels, 1994 levels (corresponding to full implementation of Canadian SO_2emission reductions as stipulated in the 1991 Canada/U.S. Air Quality Agreement), 2010 levels (1994 plus full U.S. reductions), and both a 50% and a 75% further reduction beyond 2010 levels. Some habitat improvements in Algoma were predicted under the 2010 scenario for all biota, but substantial increases in habitat quality, especially for mergansers, would occur only under further reductions. The TLW showed little change in chemistry or biota, while lakes near the Montreal River were predicted to improve substantially.

Keywords: acidification; Algoma; common loon; emissionscenarios; fish; habitat suitability; logistic regression; merganser; modeling; recovery

Language: English

Document Type: Regular paper

Affiliations: 1: Canadian Wildlife Service, Ontario Region, Ottawa, ON, Canada (author for correspondence, e-mail: don.mcnicol@ec.gc.ca; fax: (613)952-9027)

Publication date: 2002-01-01